Race to the Chase: One for the Money, Two for the Show, Three to get Ready …

Following the Carfax 400 at Michigan International Speedway, the Chase scenario for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series became a little clearer – or even more confusing.

Kevin Harvick reaffirmed his points-leading position with a win at a track that does not involve a carburetor restrictor plate. His first downforce-track win since Phoenix in November 2006 came at just the right time, as the No. 29 RCR team looks to ramp up its performance in time for the start of the Chase for the Championship in three weeks. On Wednesday, it was announced that Budweiser will assume the primary sponsor role of his No. 29 Chevrolet beginning next season, replacing Shell-Pennzoil, which is moving to the No. 22 of Kurt Busch at Penske Racing.

Ford luminary Jack Roush received a nice welcome back present in the form of three top-10 finishes, with Carl Edwards leading the way in third, Greg Biffle dominating the event early, leading 66 of 200 laps and finishing fourth, and Matt Kenseth bringing the No. 17 Crown Royal Fusion home fifth. Even David Ragan got in on the act, leading two laps with 24 circuits remaining, and just missing out on a top 10. The new FR9 engine appears to be paying bigger dividends now than it was its last time in Michigan. Ford teams can now take advantage of their new engine’s improved cooling and horsepower that looked more stout than in June, thanks in part to new front-end geometry gleaned from Richard Petty Motorsports.

Hendrick Motorsports continues to be a study in contrasts and disparity. Jeff Gordon stood a chance to win his first race since Texas in April 2009, but a cut tire and resulting damage relegated him to “last car on the lead-lap” status. Jimmie Johnson cruised home to a rather uneventful 12th-place finish – though anything the 48 team is doing at this point seems to be of little consequence. If you don’t think Johnson, Kanus and Co. have something waiting in the wings for Loudon, those delusions of grandeur will be brought back into perspective about a month from now.

The No. 5 team of Mark Martin looked to have something somewhat competitive at MIS, though an uncharacteristic slip exiting Turn 4 on lap 4, which preceded contact with Scott Speed, contributed to a 28th-place finish. Entering the race with just a 10-point lead over Clint Bowyer in 13th, it was a reversal of fortune for Martin, who capitalized on a failed rear-suspension piece on the No. 33 machine a week earlier at Watkins Glen.

So how do the next three weeks shape up for those drivers that are in the Chase or stand a realistic shot getting there? Let’s take a look:

1. Kevin Harvick  Has a win at each of the three remaining regular season tracks, and nearly won Atlanta last September. Hasn’t had a top 10 at Bristol since 2008, but at this stage of the game he’ll gamble for wins to catch Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson, who have five wins to Harvick’s three, for Chase seeding.

2. Jeff Gordon  Desperately needs a win for myriad reasons. Team isn’t griping, but any pending distractions are in the process of being taken care of. Leo Benjamin Gordon is onboard, as is crew chief Steve Letarte, having signed a contract extension, though sponsorship deals for 2011 and beyond are currently being finalized. Shouldn’t be too tough to find a backer for a four-time champ and an icon of the sport … right?

3. Denny Hamlin  Slowed in recent weeks by wrecks and poor performance, looked to regain the form that saw him win five races in the first 15 events with a second at Michigan and a fifth at Pocono a few weeks back. Won last fall at Richmond, finished 21st in the Atlanta spring race, and 19th at Bristol. The biggest thing this group needs to do is figure out why its batteries keep dying.

4. Tony Stewart  It’s the time of the year when Smoke starts smoking the competition. Ever since he said he was going to make highlight reels back in June, he has done just that, posting only one finish worse than ninth following a 15th in the Coca-Cola 600 on Memorial Day weekend. The psudeo-Hendrick No. 14 team is lacking very little right now, and if they pull it together, Stewart could be the first owner-driver champion since Alan Kulwicki did it “his way” in 1992.

5. Jimmie Johnson  Not much to say here. Still the team to beat. They got their five wins early in the year; they will likely win another five once the Chase starts.

6. Carl Edwards  Where did this guy come from? Probation and controversy be damned, Edwards and the No. 99 Aflac team have strung together six straight runs of seventh or better, with a couple tasty tracks on the docket. Edwards has three wins in Atlanta, including his first career victory, and a pair at Bristol. He has extra motivation too, having not won a Sprint Cup race since nearly winning the title in 2008 and wanting to win one for car owner Jack Roush, who has returned to the track after nearly buying the farm in yet another plane crash.

7. Jeff Burton  We all know Jeff Burton’s deal by now: He runs around seventh and you never notice him, and that’s typically where he’ll finish, although he usually finds Victory Lane once per season. Prior to Sunday’s Michigan race when he got the fenders crinkled, he was on pace for another top-10 finish. Burton is steady just about everywhere he goes, led 20 laps at Richmond in May and is usually top-10 material at Bristol. With RCR cars making some steam under the hood and sticking like duct tape on fast tracks, Atlanta will likely be another solid outing. I don’t see him for sure winning a race, but then again – when do you?

8. Kyle Busch  Still showing sings of being the petulant youth whose not quite ready to contend for a title. Exhibited renewed speed midseason with new-for-2010 crew chief Dave Rogers, but has regressed back to overdriving, hitting things and generally taking himself out of races. The radio rhetoric seems to be escalating in recent weeks, and not just in Sprint Cup, but in the Nationwide rides as well. He may have the chops behind the wheel, but his leadership skills need some polishing.

9. Matt Kenseth  A few weeks ago, Kenseth looked to be the most vulnerable driver in the top 12, honestly, looking to be the likely candidate to fall out. A midseason speed bump following a falling out with crew chief Todd Parrot led to Jimmy Fenning, the rock of Roush Fenway Racing, being called in to sit atop the pit box. A fifth-place run at Michigan might be what jump-starts this team right before the Chase begins. He was runner-up in Atlanta this March, and finished fifth at Bristol. This bunch has a lot of hurdles to overcome, but with the rest of the Roush group on point, the rising tide should float the 17’s boat.

10. Kurt Busch  Was looking pretty sporty at Michigan until his Mopar missile ventilated its short block with the connecting rods. To show how close the field is, Busch dropped six spots in the standings following his abbreviated afternoon. He’d be a legitimate title threat right now if he had some competitive teammates — or other Pentastar cars to lean on. The Blue Deuce is carrying the new Dodge logo into battle and doing an admirable job, but they can’t do it alone. Kurt won the first race in Atlanta this year and got snookered by the 48 at Bristol – and that has to still be gnawing at him. You know, getting beat by a “pretty boy” and all …

11. Greg Biffle  After nearly two seasons of mediocrity, Biffle has showed the most consistent speed over the last month. He loves Bristol, the Roush Fords are handling on downforce tracks like they did five years ago and he has enough cushion over 13th where he can cruise. Remember how he came out of nowhere to win the first two Chase races in 2008? It could very well happen again – and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise this go ’round.

12. Clint Bowyer  Richard Childress said he plans to have a talk with Bowyer this week on how to focus and keep sight of the big picture over the next few races. The horsepower RCR is making coupled with Bowyer having Richmond flat figured out leads most to believe these next three tracks are custom tailored for him to make the Chase. With two cars solidly in the field, you can bet the Childress braintrust are putting its emphasis on getting the No. 33 in the field of 12.

13. Mark Martin  What a difference a year makes. Four wins a year ago have been replaced with fickle media members and cars that haven’t turned like those of his teammates. It hasn’t been for a lack of trying, though. No matter, Martin has never failed to qualify for the Chase when he’s run a full season. He was contending for a win at Bristol in March before being walled by Biffle and always brings his A-game in Atlanta. Richmond, however, brings some ghosts of its own (1990 anyone?). Fun fact: The protestor of that race win which ultimately cost Martin that title? Richard Childress.

14. Ryan Newman  Made up 55 points at Watkins Glen, but a run-in with Joey Logano cost him dearly at MIS after a smashed crush panel ruined the sideforce of his No. 39 Stewart-Haas entry. Garage area confrontation with Logano likely won’t spark a rally out of this team, but it makes for good theater. Newman often runs well, but does not put together a complete race for a top-10 finish. Needs whatever his boss has of late, like, right now. And no, I'm not talking about a Whopper.

15. Jamie McMurray  After winning the Brickyard 400, McMurray said he didn’t care if he made the Chase or not. That’s probably good, because with two of his last three finishes resulting in 22nd- and 20th-place showings, he likely won’t. Going with a conservative setup at Pocono likely cost him a shot at making the playoffs for the first time. Was top 10 at Bristol in the spring, but ignited a huge crash at the end of the Atlanta race in March. Many remember his valiant effort to qualify for Chase in ’04 in Richmond; who knows? It might play itself out again in 2010.